Sub-Saharan Africa's off-grid solar capacity is set to grow by 450% by 2035, according to Wood Mackenzie's September 2026 report, with Nigeria accounting for close to 35% of projected installations. The sector just posted its best sales year on record — 10.2 million solar products sold in 2025 per GOGLA, up nearly 10% year on year. For solar and storage suppliers targeting Africa, the window is open.
GOGLA's 2025 Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report, published in June 2026, shows:
· GOGLA affiliates sold 10.2 million solar energy kits in 2025, up nearly 10% from 2024 — the highest annual total ever recorded;
· Solar home system (SHS) sales reached 2.52 million units, up 48% year on year; multi-light systems reached 2.65 million (+36%); off-grid appliances reached 1.83 million;
· Affiliates now serve almost 150 million people worldwide, a net increase of 11 million in 2025;
· West Africa grew 26% year on year, driven primarily by Nigeria, and pay-as-you-go (PAYGo) sales rose 48%.
One caveat from GOGLA itself: growth is concentrated in subsidy- and results-based-finance-supported markets, and among a small number of large companies. Who can compete in the "natural market" after subsidy programs end will decide the next phase of rankings.
In its report "Off-grid solar PV in Sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-gigawatt growth opportunity" (23 September 2026), Wood Mackenzie cites three underlying drivers:
1. Falling module prices, which keep widening solar's cost advantage over diesel generation;
2. High diesel costs — in Nigeria and the DRC, commercial, industrial and mining users can already make the economics work; solar-as-a-service now costs less than diesel generation in Nigeria;
3. Private capital arriving, with increasingly localized financing structures.
The report models ten markets in depth, and the picture varies sharply by country:
Market | Growth profile |
Nigeria | Close to 35% of projected installations; growth driven mainly by C&I users displacing diesel, not first-time electrification |
DR Congo | A mix of mining loads displacing diesel and genuine first-time rural electrification (very low access rates) |
Kenya | Maturing from first-time access toward cost optimization; smaller commercial and household systems dominate |
Zambia | Mining-linked demand, similar to the DRC |
Ethiopia | Large population and industrial ambitions; small systems make up most deployments |
Ghana, Tanzania | Significant commercial and rural demand side by side |
(Source: pv magazine's interview with Wood Mackenzie analyst Sohan Gwalani, 29 September 2026.)
The demand floor is solid: IEA research published in October 2025 found that eight of every ten people lacking electricity access worldwide live in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Nigeria's $300 million distributed renewable energy fund. As reported in October 2026, the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), together with Africa50 and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL), launched a $300M DRE fund for microgrids, standalone solar and other distributed projects, with $25M in initial funding from the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA). The fund supports "Mission 300" — the initiative to connect 300 million Africans to electricity by 2030.
Local-currency financing at a record share. GOGLA investment data shows local-currency transactions reached a record 47.2% of total sector investment in 2025 (~US$148.6M), and Nigeria was the largest single recipient country at US$114M. Local-currency structures cut FX risk — a marker of a maturing market.
National programs keep scaling. Nigeria's Rural Electrification Agency reports that the World Bank-supported DARES project had deployed over 830,000 solar home systems by April 2026 — 41.5% of its 2 million target — reaching nearly 3.9 million people.
1. Design for weak grids, heavy use and price sensitivity.
Both Wood Mackenzie and InfoLink's regional research point the same way: African markets prioritize safe, low-voltage, affordable systems, and prefer split architectures where inverters and batteries can be paired across brands. Local installation and after-sales resources are scarce — serviceability beats integration.
2. Size systems on real loads, not sunny-day ideals.
Most off-grid system failures come from sizing mistakes: ignoring appliance start-up surges, sizing batteries on optimistic sunshine hours, or leaving no margin for high-temperature derating. Our step-by-step guide "How to Size an Off-Grid Solar System for Regions with Unstable Power" walks through the four-step method.
3. Build a private label with OEM/ODM, and lock in the channel.
In markets where the competitive landscape is unsettled, distributors with their own brand and a local spare-parts pipeline capture the longest margin cycle. How to vet a factory is covered in "How to Choose a Solar Inverter and Battery OEM/ODM Manufacturer in China: A Sourcing Guide for Distributors".
DEMUDA's off-grid and hybrid solar range covers 6–12 kW hybrid inverters, 51.2V LiFePO4 batteries and stackable battery racks, with generator input support for weak-grid and off-grid scenarios, plus OEM/ODM, brand authorization and remote technical support for distributors in Africa and South Asia. Contact us for configurations or samples for Nigeria, Kenya, Pakistan and other markets.
Q1: How fast will Africa's off-grid solar market grow?
Wood Mackenzie (September 2026) projects Sub-Saharan Africa's off-grid solar capacity will grow by 450% by 2035, with Nigeria accounting for roughly 35% of projected installations.
Q2: Which African off-grid markets are growing fastest?
Nigeria (C&I diesel displacement), the DRC (mining plus first-time electrification) and Kenya (cost optimization), followed by Zambia, Ethiopia, Ghana and Tanzania.
Q3: What is the biggest barrier to off-grid solar in Africa?
Financing. Wood Mackenzie notes borrowing costs can exceed 30%, and currency depreciation limits capital availability. The answer is blended finance, development-finance guarantees and local-currency lending — not subsidies alone.
Q4: How many off-grid solar products were sold globally in 2025?
GOGLA affiliates sold 10.2 million solar energy kits in 2025, up nearly 10% year on year, including 2.52 million solar home systems (+48%).
Q5: What kind of products sell best in African markets?
Safe low-voltage architectures, affordable pricing, split systems that allow cross-brand pairing of inverter and battery, clear installation documentation and accessible spare parts. In subsidy-supported markets, PAYGo compatibility matters.
