Against the backdrop of ongoing market-oriented reforms in the new energy sector, the development logic of the PV power generation industry is undergoing a fundamental shift. The old model, which relied on capacity expansion to deliver stable returns, is gradually fading out. In its place, a new operational system centered on refined O&M, accurate power forecasting, and market-based trading is taking shape. At the recent SNEC PV Power Expo in Shanghai, the strong presence of meteorological technology companies and specialized monitoring equipment manufacturers became a notable highlight. This phenomenon clearly signals that PV meteorological monitoring — once viewed as a supporting add-on — has moved decisively away from the periphery and become a core requirement for compliant, cost-effective PV plant operations. The integration of meteorological technology and the renewable energy sector is accelerating.
In the early stages of the industry's development, domestic PV projects generally operated under fixed feed-in tariffs. The government set standard electricity prices, grid companies purchased all generated solar power at those prices, and plant revenues were insulated from time-of-use or supply-demand fluctuations — delivering very stable returns. Under this model, plant operation and management tended to be coarse. The industry focused on module technology iteration, capacity expansion, and levelized cost of energy reduction. With no pressure from power output assessments or market bidding, power forecasting and environmental monitoring were not prioritized. Most plants used only basic, single-function weather equipment or skipped monitoring entirely. Meteorological monitoring long remained an optional extra rather than a necessity.
In February 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) issued Document No. 136 (Fagai Jiage [2025] 136), formally launching market-oriented reforms for new energy feed-in tariffs. The document stipulates that all electricity generated from wind, solar, and other new energy sources must enter the power market, with tariffs determined by market transactions rather than government set prices. A clear timeline was provided: all provinces must fully implement the reform by the end of 2025, with a distinction between existing and new projects based on a June 1, 2025 cut-off date — applying the "old rules for old projects, new rules for new projects" principle.
As of June 2026, the vast majority of provinces have completed the transition, and full-volume market-based trading for new energy has entered normal operations. Spot markets clear every 15 minutes, electricity prices fluctuate in real time, and medium- and long-term trading is integrated with spot markets. PV and wind power no longer benefit from fixed, guaranteed tariffs. The era of guaranteed prices and volumes has ended completely. Meanwhile, multiple grid-connection and ancillary service requirements have been tightened. When a plant's power generation forecast deviates significantly from actual output, or when unscheduled outages occur, operators face penalties. Under this dual regulatory shift, the PV industry has bid farewell to its "weather-proof" revenue model. Plant operations have formally entered a new stage where forecasting accuracy, trading strategy, and comprehensive management capabilities determine success.
In the spot electricity market, trading is organized in 15-minute intervals, with prices dynamically determined by real-time supply and demand. During daytime hours when sunlight is abundant, PV output rises sharply, leading to oversupply. Despite steady growth in energy storage capacity, physical and grid-dispatch constraints prevent storage from absorbing all surplus power. Low midday electricity prices have become a common phenomenon across the industry. This means that plant revenues are no longer determined solely by total generation. The ability to accurately predict price trends and optimize generation schedules directly affects profitability. Leveraging professional meteorological data for generation forecasting serves two critical purposes. First, it sharply reduces the deviation between scheduled and actual output, avoiding financial penalties from grid compliance assessments. Second, it enables plants to optimize their generation strategies — increasing output during high-price windows and reducing it during low-price periods — maximizing trading revenue. Meteorological data has thus become an indispensable core input for PV plant operations.
This shift in market demand is driving a rapid upgrade in PV meteorological monitoring hardware. Traditional low-cost, basic weather stations have limited measurement scope and insufficient data accuracy, making them inadequate for refined operations and accurate forecasting. Large utility-scale PV plants and commercial-industrial distributed installations cover vast areas. Different arrays face different orientations and tilt angles. Local irradiance, temperature, humidity, and soiling conditions vary significantly. A single monitoring point cannot represent the actual operating conditions of an entire plant. The industry‘s current leading high-precision PV meteorological monitoring systems are capable of collecting multiple key data streams simultaneously — solar irradiance, ambient temperature and humidity, precipitation, panel soiling, cloud cover, and more — providing a solid data foundation for power forecasting models and intelligent dispatch systems. While a full set of high-precision equipment and its supporting algorithmic solution requires significant upfront investment, the long-term avoidance of penalty costs and revenue losses has made hardware upgrades the most cost-effective choice for most plant operators.
The national standard GB/T 20513.1-2025, "Photovoltaic System Performance – Part 1: Monitoring," which takes effect in July 2026, further establishes clear guidelines for the industry. The new standard sets mandatory requirements for the number of meteorological monitoring stations based on installed capacity:
Utility-scale PV plants and large C&I plants with capacity below 40 MW must install at least two weather stations.
Large-scale PV bases of 700 MW and above require a minimum of six stations, with one additional station for every additional 200 MW of capacity.
Once the new rules take effect, all newly built PV plants must be configured strictly according to the standard, and existing non-compliant plants will need to initiate upgrades. Industry consensus expects that, driven by the combination of regulatory requirements and market demand, the PV meteorological monitoring equipment and data services market will experience a concentrated surge in the second half of 2026.
Looking across the entire industry development trajectory, the convergence of meteorological technology and the PV sector is deepening — driven by market-based trading, stricter grid compliance rules, and binding national standards. The PV industry has definitively moved beyond its phase of crude capacity expansion and entered a new era of data-driven, intelligently dispatched, precisely operated high-quality development. From initial site assessment and resource evaluation, through mid-stage operational monitoring and power forecasting, to final-stage electricity trading strategy formulation — meteorological services now span the entire PV lifecycle. Looking ahead, as energy storage technology and intelligent algorithms continue to improve, the integration between the two sectors will expand further. High-precision meteorological monitoring will continue to deliver value, playing an increasingly important role in driving the steady progress of the renewable energy industry.
